Demographic dynamics, aging populations and Turkey
The Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) published worldwide demographic projections for 2050 three weeks ago. Making projections for such a long period can be considered a perilous exercise, but let’s not forget that demographic trends — which originate from long-lasting structural factors such as urbanization, modern life and health improvements — are hardly irreversible. So, demographic dynamics have to be considered seriously as they are very influential in the long run regarding the stability of economic and social systems.
In order to underline the importance of the demographic dynamics, let me give an example from history. The explosion of the population in Europe during the early Middle Ages reinforced the feudalist system and prepared the ground for the Crusades with all their consequences. However, this explosion caused, at the beginning of the 14th century, severe famines that paved the way one generation later for the Black Plague that decimated one-third of the European population. So, this time the rapid decline of the population weakened the feudal system and opened the era of the Renaissance.